UFC 295 - Main & Co-Main Event Breakdowns

Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich & Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka

Tom Aspinall (-120) vs Sergei Pavlovich (+100)

For our co-main event of the evening we have a showcase of the next generation of UFC Heavyweights as Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich face off for the interim Heavyweight championship. Originally, we were going to see Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic fight for the belt, but Jones made the mistake of training with the greatest of all time in Don’tale Mayes, leading to an injury and him dropping out of the fight. Personally, I like the new fight a lot more.

On first glance this seems to be a fairly binary striker vs grappler fight. On the Pavlovich side, you have somebody who is not looking to engage in the ground game at all, and whose sole purpose is to put the man in front of him to sleep. Pavlovich carries insane power. On top of that, his striking is clean and very fast for a man of his size. On the other side, you have a guy who has some of the best wrestling and BJJ in the Heavyweight division. Aspinall times his takedowns very well, and you don’t often see him shooting takedowns with no setup. His BJJ on the ground is high level as well.

Truth is though, the fight isn’t completely binary. While Aspinall is certainly the better grappler and that is clearly his best path to victory, he’s a very good boxer too. His hands are very fast and he has great combinations. He moves very well unlike Sergei who is extremely flat footed especially when he’s throwing strikes. While I don’t think he should be striking for long periods of time here, it’s good to know he can hang there and it means he has something to set up the takedowns with. We see it often where someone comes into a fight as a great wrestler but because they don’t have the striking to set up the takedowns, their takedowns are easy to see coming and are a lot easier to stop. With someone like Aspinall, you can’t risk only worrying about the takedowns because if you do that, he’ll go right for your head and he’s got the power to put anyone’s lights out.

I do want to address some narratives going around for this fight. The first, is this idea that Pavlovich is so much more prepared because he was in a training camp while Aspinall was not. I keep hearing how Aspinall hasn’t been preparing for Pavlovich. But I haven’t heard any of those people also say that Pavlovich wasn’t preparing for Aspinall. Because he wasn’t. He was preparing to MAYBE be a backup if Jones or Stipe fell out of it. But neither Jones or Stipe fight anything like Aspinall. Sure they are both grapplers, but neither has the movement of Aspinall. And at this point of their careers, neither of them is as fast as him either.

The other narrative I want to address is one that came up today after weigh-ins. Aspinall weighed in 3 pounds heavier than he did the last time, and suddenly all of the couch experts are yelling “look look he’s fatter now clearly he came right off the couch”. It’s 3 pounds for the love of god. That can easily be attributed to him gaining mass from training. But people will often tailor narratives to make themselves feel like their bet will win.

Pavlovich is the most dangerous man in the division at this point, and he can certainly catch Aspinall, especially in the first round. But in my opinion the most likely outcome is an Aspinall win, likely coming by submission in the second round.

Pick: Tom Aspinall - Bet: Tom Aspinal -122 1.5 units

Alex Pereira (-126) vs Jiri Prochazka (+106)

To be honest, even when Jones and Stipe were still on the card, this was the main event. It’s such an awesome fight and I cannot wait to see it play out.

Jiri has been out for over a year now since the Glover fight. He was apparently recovering from a shoulder injury, but there don’t seem to be any scars so I don’t know how bad it could have been. Luckily, I am not a doctor so that is not my wheel house. But he took a lot of time off, so I’m confident he’s good to go if he’s accepted this fight.

Alex’s run in the UFC has been something else to watch. Three wins into his UFC career he beats Adesanya and takes the MW belt. Then after losing it, he goes up to 205 and beats former LHW champion Jan Blachowiz. A win here would mean he’d have been a champion in two divisions in both the UFC and Glory kickboxing.

The matchup is really intriguing because of the clash of styles here. We’re more than likely going to get a striking match, as neither guy really wrestles much. I do think if anyone is able to do it, it’s going to be Jiri. And if he is uncomfortable on the feet, I do think he will at least try to go for at. Alex, for a guy who has been training with Glover for some time now and who has always known as a kickboxing champion that people will try to take him down in MMA, still has horrible takedown defense. So even though Jiri is not an amazing wrestler, I do think it’s something available to him.

In the striking, we have a guy in Pereira who sticks to the fundamentals. You don’t see him attempting anything crazy. Everything is clean, accurate, and extremely powerful. One of his best weapons is the left hook he put Strickland out with, and it’s a weapon we have seen hurt Jiri more than once. In fact, Glover hurt Jiri more than once in their first, and the left hook was one of the strikes he did it with. His body shots are nasty, he’s got really good kicks, and a great jab. He’s also very good at cutting the cage and giving his opponents less space to work with. It’s partially how he was able to get Adesanya out of their in their first MMA fight.

On the other side, we have Jiri, who does everything except the fundamentals. His movements and stance are very unorthodox. And so is everything he throws. But he makes it work. The movement along with the hands being low makes it really hard to know where the strikes are going to be coming from. He’ll seamlessly mix together his weapons, putting together combinations of knees, elbows, and punches. The big concern here is the fact that he blocks punches with his face, keeping his hands down. And a guy like Pereira could take advantage and put him out. Especially because we have seen Jiri hurt in every single UFC fight he has had so far. However, he does move a lot and I do think he will make Pereira miss quite a bit.

I think as the fight progresses, this will become Jiri’s fight. He has 33 MMA fights to Pereira’s 10. Pereira is already 36 at this point. And while he’s already super high level, he doesn’t seem to be getting any better. The fight against Blachowiz to me was unimpressive. Blachowiz was able to land a lot using just fundamental boxing. A guy like Jiri will be able to land a lot more using his unorthodox style and size. Alex has also never fought anyone like this, and has no training partners who can replicate it. Jiri has fought tons of strikers. None as high level as Alex, but he knows the style. Pereira can’t say the same.

I think the pressure, output, and uniqueness of Jiri’s style will get to Pereira as the fight goes on, and I see Jiri getting a late finish if not a decision.

Pick: Jiri Prochazka - Bet: Jiri Prochazka ML +102 1 unit